A financing shortfall of more than $250 billion across the GCC is pushing private credit into the spotlight as an alternative to traditional bank lending, with the UAE emerging as a key hub for this shift.
Private credit is gaining ground across real estate, technology, healthcare, education, logistics and small-business lending, according to Nisus Finance, which estimates the GCC and Egypt private credit market could grow by 15 to 30 per cent annually, reaching between $11 billion and $20 billion by the end of the decade.
Why Dubai real estate is leading the way
Dubai's property market recorded more than Dh680 billion in investment across over 258,000 transactions in 2025, underscoring the scale of capital moving through the emirate. Yet private credit remains a relatively small part of that picture historically: in 2021, it accounted for only around 3 per cent of total real estate debt across the UAE and Saudi Arabia. That low base is part of why analysts see significant room for growth.
Amit Jhunjhunwala, Chief Investment Officer, UAE, at Nisus Finance, said private credit is filling a structural gap in the region's capital markets rather than displacing banks. "Private credit is not replacing banks. It is completing a capital structure that has traditionally had a gap between what a deposit-taking institution can prudently lend against and what a business or asset actually requires to grow, develop or complete a transaction," he said.
Beyond property: where the money is headed next
Over the next three to five years, private credit activity is expected to broaden well beyond real estate. Nisus Finance points to technology, growth-stage companies, education, healthcare, logistics and supply-chain businesses, along with data centres, digital infrastructure, warehousing, healthcare facilities and hospitality as sectors likely to draw increasing interest from private lenders.
Jhunjhunwala framed the opportunity as regional rather than confined to any one industry. "The GCC has the demand, regulatory architecture and capital required for private credit to develop into a meaningful institutional asset class. The opportunity extends well beyond any single sector as businesses across the region look for more flexible sources of capital," he said.
An India-GCC capital corridor
The UAE's position as a financial centre, anchored by hubs such as the Dubai International Financial Centre and Abu Dhabi Global Market, is also feeding into cross-border capital flows, particularly with India. Jhunjhunwala described a growing link between Gulf capital and Indian demand for long-term financing. "India and the GCC are developing an increasingly important capital corridor. Gulf capital has duration, while Indian businesses and assets require duration capital. Private credit has the potential to become an efficient instrument connecting these two markets," he said.
For businesses and investors in the UAE, the trend points to a widening set of financing options outside conventional bank loans, at a time when the region's overall funding needs continue to outpace what traditional lenders alone can supply.
